Use with Claude Open the chartUpdated 10 November 2026 · data: Coinbase (live price) and historical daily closes
Four halvings in, part of the pattern has repeated and part hasn't. The highs came at similar times after each halving. The rises got smaller each time, and so did the falls.
| Cycle | High, days after halving | High × halving-day price | Fall after the high | Low, days after halving |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | day 371 | 92.89× | −84.5% | day 777 |
| 2016 | day 525 | 29.73× | −83.6% | day 890 |
| 2020 | day 547 | 7.70× | −76.7% | day 924 |
| 2024 | day 534 (so far) | 1.92× | −53.0% | day 801 |
Highest and lowest daily closes from each halving to 500 days before the next, the window the chart uses. 2024 figures are so far: the cycle is not finished.
Cycle highs came 371, 525, 547 days after the halving, and the 2024 high so far on day 534. Lows followed about a year later each time (406 days, 365 days, 377 days from high to low), on day 777, 890, 924 after the halving. Today is day 934 of the 2024 cycle.
Each completed cycle peaked at a smaller multiple of its halving-day price than the one before (2012: 92.89×, 2016: 29.73×, 2020: 7.70×), and the 2024 cycle is at 1.92× so far. The falls after each high also got shallower: −84.5%, −83.6%, −76.7%.
Four cycles is a small sample, and the market around Bitcoin has changed a lot since 2012. The numbers above describe what happened. They are not a forecast of what happens next.
Line up all four cycles from their halving dates and judge the pattern yourself, with the live price on top.
Compare every cycle with Pro Open the free 2024 chartThe data so far gives a split answer. The timing has repeated: cycle highs came 371, 525, 547 days after the halving, and the 2024 cycle's high so far was on day 534. The size has not: the rise from halving day to the high shrank from 92.89× to 29.73× to 7.70× and is 1.92× so far in 2024. Whether the pattern continues is not something past data can settle.
Halvings happen every 210,000 blocks, which has worked out to 1,319, 1,402, 1,440 days between halvings, a little under four years each. Bitcoin's biggest rises and falls have tended to line up with that clock.
Each halving cuts new supply by a smaller amount in absolute terms, and the market is larger, with spot ETFs, futures and institutional holders that did not exist in 2012 or 2016. Those are reasons people give; none of them is a measurement.
Compare it with earlier cycles at the same number of days after the halving. Today is day 934; the cycle tracker does that comparison every day.
Cycle tracker · Price after each halving · When past cycles made their low · Bear markets and cycle lows · Days since the halving · Next halving countdown · Is the 4-year cycle dead? · Month by month after the halving · Halving schedule to 2140 · Halving dates and FAQ · Use with Claude
Get the weekly cycle update. One email each Sunday: where this cycle stands against every earlier one at the same day. Free. Unsubscribe any time.
We'll email you a link to confirm. See Privacy.
Charts and figures are for education and research. Past cycles don't predict future prices. Not financial advice.