Bitcoin halving cycles

How each cycle looked from 500 days before to well after the halving, with a month-by-month heatmap. Historical data for education only.
Not financial advice. This page shows past price data and an illustrative what-if line. It is not a recommendation, forecast or offer to buy or sell anything. Cryptoassets are high risk and mostly unregulated in the UK, and you could lose all the money you put in. Past performance is not a reliable guide to what happens next.
Cycles
Scale
Normalise
Range
Live actual
Illustrative 2028 path · pick one or more to blend
Amplitude
Monthly heatmapMonths from the halving · the white outline follows your cursor on the chart
Down
Up · click a month to jump the chart to it · purple column = illustrative, not data
Cycle anatomyFrom weekly samples

How to read it. The chart lines up each cycle by weeks from its halving. Hover, tap, or use the ← → keys to step through weeks; the box under the chart shows the 2024 cycle (Pro shows every cycle), and the heatmap outlines the matching calendar month for every cycle. The 2012 cycle is chart-only and is off by default.

Illustrative 2028 path. The dotted line re-draws the percentage shape of the cycle(s) you pick, starting from today's price and scaled by the amplitude (log scale). "Decay" shrinks the move the way gains shrank between the 2016, 2020 and 2024 cycles (three cycles, so a small sample). It assumes today's price holds until 500 days before the next halving. It is a what-if built from past shapes, not a forecast or a price target.

Data. Weekly closes from a public daily BTC/USD series. Sep 21 and Sep 30 2026 closes come from published sources; the last point is the Oct 7 2026 print, not a final close, and the Oct '26 month is approximate. Halvings: 2012-11-28, 2016-07-09, 2020-05-11, 2024-04-20; next about 2028-04-13 (projected, moves with block time).

Not financial advice. This is general educational information, not investment, legal or tax advice, and not a personal recommendation. Cryptoassets are high risk and you could lose all your money. Past performance is not a reliable guide to future results.